Methodology The natural gas price in North America is dominated by the U.S. consumption. I have been puzzled by the up and down of the price using the weekly report from EIA. When the report has an increase relative to last year the price falls and vise versa. However, the information from EIA follows a simplistic model that does not tell the full story. Using the EIA 5 year average model it does not account for any increase in demand. It is also confusing that it is hard to tell the effect of unused surplus or over-consumed deficit. To decipher the details, a reference model is constructed. Details could be found in the study 2006 NG price crash aftermath.
